摘要：轻巧，强大的锂离子电池对于向电动汽车的过渡至关重要，在未来25年内，全球对锂的需求将迅速增长。 A new analysis looks at how new mining operations and battery recycling could meet that demand. Recycling could play a big role in easing supply constra...
轻巧，强大的锂离子电池对于向电动汽车的过渡至关重要，在未来25年内，全球对锂的需求将迅速增长。 A new analysis from the University of California, Davis, published May 29 inNature Sustainability,looks at how new mining operations and battery recycling could meet that demand. Recycling could play a big role in easing supply constraints, the researchers found.
Ray B. Krone的环境工程教授兼报纸高级作家Alissa Kendall说：“电池是对锂的巨大需求。”
肯德尔说，锂是一种相对常见的矿物质，大约10年前的需求相对较小且稳定，少量矿山提供了世界的供应。 Global demand for lithium has risen dramatically -- by 30% between 2022 and 2023 alone -- as adoption of electric vehicles continues.
"Governments need to know where lithium will come from and if we're going to run out," she said.
该论文的第一作者说，先前的研究重点是预测未来30年的累积需求。 But opening a new lithium mine is a potentially billion-dollar investment that could take 10 to 15 years to begin production, he said. New mining proposals can be delayed or cancelled by environmental regulations and local opposition.
"It's not just about having enough lithium, it's how fast you can extract it," Busch said. “任何供应中断都会减慢电动汽车采用，降低移动性的访问，并扩展燃烧发动机车辆及其相关碳排放的运行。”
There are three main sources of usable lithium, in order of ease of extraction: briny water from deep underground; rocks; and sedimentary clays. Half the world's lithium currently comes from Australia, where it is mostly mined from rock.南美和美国的一部分在地热区和油具有富含锂的盐水，美国也有含锂的粘土。
A fourth source of lithium is from recycling of old batteries. This is still a relatively expensive process compared to mining, Kendall said.
Modeling supply and demand
Busch and Kendall modeled how the need to open new lithium mines would change over time under varying demand scenarios.他们预测，在高需求的情况下，到2050年将需要开放多达85个新的和额外的锂沉积物。但是，通过将市场推向较小的电池和广泛的全球再生的政治，这可以大大降低到只有15个新矿山。
Battery recycling has an outsize effect on the market, the researchers said.
"Recycling is really important for geopolitical and environmental reasons," Kendall said. "If you can meet a small percentage of demand with recycling, it can have a big impact on the need for new mines."
时机就是一切。 Some new mines need to open to create a flow of lithium that can be recycled. Depending on the demand scenario, recycling would make the biggest difference around 2035.
电动汽车的效率标准和公共充电网络的改进，以减少“范围焦虑”，这也可能通过鼓励较小的汽车来适应锂需求。
Additional authors are Yunzhu Chen and Prosper Ogbonna, both at UC Davis. The work was funded by grants from the Heising-Simons Foundation and the ClimateWorks Foundation.
